January 23, 2007: Analyzing the Oscars Without My Personal Bias

Yeah, right. That's impossible. At least for me. It's a popularity contest that favors movies that make everyone cry. The actors who get nominated are chosen through a filter of:

*Celebrity status, PR, and legend
*Makeups from previous films, years and life events
*An odd, magical advertising formula of sucking up enough, yet not too much

Then the celebrity-conscious like me spend way too much time filtering the nominations through our overly personal lens. For your consideration, here's my take:

- "And I am telling you, you're not getting nominated, you are the best picture of the year, but there's no way we'll see you here..." Dreamgirls is now the Effie of Best Picture snubs. It deserved it, but it will not be forced down the academy's throat, even if it is a remarkable achievement and a powerful tale of African Americans in the music industry. Of course, Walk the Line missed the Best Picture nod, too, but that didn't feel like a slap at country folk, did it? But it's hard not to feel a backlash against out director Bill Condon (too gay?).

- The documentary category is the most celeb-referencing in years. Al Gore? Dixie Chicks? Forget about the films themselves, which are both excellent. It's all about the voters' perception of Al and the Chicks. Of course, Al will get it.

- Everyone loves The Queen despite the fact that, as Helen Mirren said, it's a "very small film." We love it because we love and miss Princess Diana. Best Picture is the We Love Diana nod. Helen is awesome, but Best Actress is the cumulative nod to her career.

- Penelope Cruz deserves an award for doing whatever she did for Tom Cruise and Matthew McConaughey, then getting the hell away from both of them.

- Brad Pitt, ask Peter O'Toole how it feels to be in really good films, occasionally get nominated, more often get snubbed, and not get taken that seriously by voters.

-Alan Arkin is the best supporting actor. The old man always wins this category, especially if he (spoiler alert) dies and the other characters are actually bummed out about it.

- Peter O'Toole, ask Brad Pitt what it's like to shun hedonism and the high life in favor of the purpose driven life. And give someone the secret of how you (admittedly) drank and partied so much and yet are still here. The academy loves survivors. If you win, share Oscar with the ghosts of fellow underrated booze-loving thespians, Richard Burton and Bill Holden.

-Little Children was brilliant but, of course, it's about a sicko suburban community, told without the dark humor of award winning American Beauty. So it got overlooked as a film though, at least, Kate Winslet and Jackie Earle Haley got nods. Jackie, you've come a long way since playing Kelly Leak in The Bad News Bears 30 years ago. Attn: Haley Joel Osment-now that seeing dead people and your sixth sense have run their course, play your cards right and you can bring to life a pedophile equally as compelling as Jackie's in, say, 2035.